Wealthsimple Inc. has secured regulatory clearance to launch futures and forecast contracts, positioning itself as Canada's second provider authorized to enter the prediction markets space.
The Toronto-based fintech confirmed Wednesday that the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) has approved its application to offer futures and forecast contracts linked to economic indicators, financial market movements and climate-related outcomes. The Globe and Mail initially broke the story.
While regulatory approval is now in place, a company spokesperson emphasized that Wealthsimple has not yet disclosed specific product offerings in this emerging market segment, which continues to face heightened regulatory scrutiny in the United States.
Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. pioneered this product category in Canada with its forecast contract launch last April.
These financial instruments enable market participants to take positions on whether specific events will occur, such as inflation breaching predetermined thresholds.
Across the border, the scope extends considerably further, with platforms facilitating wagers on sporting outcomes and electoral results. This broader application has triggered concerns around potential insider trading violations and conflicts with state-level gambling statutes.
Allegations of insider trading have surfaced on Polymarket, an online prediction platform, in connection with key political decisions associated with the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, and the U.S.'s military operation in Venezuela this January, which led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Legislators from both major parties are now moving to address these regulatory gaps.
A bipartisan Senate measure introduced Monday, titled "The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act," aims to prohibit platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from offering prediction contracts tied to sporting competitions.
Separately, Politico reported Wednesday that congressional lawmakers are advancing bipartisan legislation known as the "Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act," or PREDICT Act, which would bar members of Congress, the president and other officials from participating in certain prediction markets.
Canada's regulatory framework has historically constrained prediction market activity. The Canadian Securities Administrators implemented restrictions in 2017 prohibiting the advertising and trading of short-duration binary options contracts with retail investors. More recently, the Ontario Securities Commission finalized a settlement in 2025 with Polymarket's operators — Blockratize Inc. and Adventure One QSS Inc. — for non-compliance with the binary options prohibition.
