Trump's 'Titanic' Economy Polling Puts the...

By Andrew Stanton

Weekend Staff Writer

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President Donald Trump’s economic approval rating could give Democrats a shot at a majority following the 2026 Senate races amid voter concerns about inflation and affordability, according to CNN data and polling analyst Harry Enten.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai responded to his remarks in a statement to Newsweek.

“In just one year, President Trump’s policies have cooled inflation, raised real wages, accelerated GDP growth, and slashed the prices of prescription drugs and gasoline. Americans can rest assured that, as these policies continue taking effect, the best is yet to come,” he wrote in a statement.

Why It Matters

Economic sentiment remains one of the most powerful predictors of midterm outcomes. Many Americans point to the economy as their top issue heading into the midterms amid concerns about inflation and affordability. That is fueling a precarious environment for Republicans defending seats in competitive states. If voters blame Trump for persistent price pressures or feel the recovery is uneven, Democrats could benefit in states where Senate races are decided by razor‑thin margins.

Across modern midterms, presidents with negative economic approval ratings have consistently seen their parties lose seats. In 2022 and 2024, for instance, Democrats paid a price for high inflation at the polls as Republicans made gains. Republicans lost seats in 2006 and 2008 amid economic concerns and the Great Recession.

What to Know About Trump's Economy Approval Rating

Enten issued a warning about the impact the economy may have on the midterms for Republicans.

“The economy used to be the wind beneath Donald Trump’s presidency wings, and now it’s his Titanic,” he said on X on Monday. “What are we talking about here? Let’s just take a look here. Donald Trump’s economic net approval one year—in term one, hey—plus sign. It was his best issues, arguably. But now it’s much worse.”

His net approval on the economy stood at -18 points, compared to -8 points during his first term, according to Enten, describing his approval as “way, way down in the basement.” The economy, “more than anything else,” has contributed to Trump’s overall approval rating declining, he added.

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“This is the type of number that Democratic midterm dreams are made of, and Republican nightmares are also made of,” he said.

These numbers put control of the Senate in play, Enten said.

Democrats have been favored to take back control of the House, but the Senate has been trickier due to a challenging map that leaves only a handful of clear pickup opportunities. Betting odds have shifted on that, however. Enten pointed to Kalshi’s odds showing Republicans with a 63 percent chance of retaining Senate control, down from 81 percent in February 2025.

“Republicans are still favored to win the Senate, but even the things that looked safe for Republicans no longer do,” he said.

Inflation Rate, Unemployment May Shape 2026 Senate Elections

The economy helped drive Trump to victory in 2024, but polling shows Americans are not feeling much better about inflation more than a year after his return to the White House.

How voters view the economy may depend on which metric they look at. Unemployment hovered around 4.4 percent in December 2025, up slightly from 4.1 percent in December 2024, according to data from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. The inflation rate stood at 2.7 percent, down from 2.9 percent in December 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew at 4.4 percent, up from 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The average house price in the second quarter of 2025 was $410,800, per the St. Louis Fed. That is up from $317,100 in 2020, five years earlier. The ongoing high prices, coupled with high interest rates, have made home affordability a major issue for prospective first-time homebuyers. Trump has sought to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but those efforts have fueled questions about the Fed’s independence.

The Dow Jones has increased by nearly 13 percent since Trump returned to office, according to MarketWatch.

The COVID-19 pandemic notably upended the global economy. While many metrics have improved, issues around inflation and housing prices have not fallen to pre-pandemic levels.

Voter perceptions of the economy remain gloomy, even as Republicans tout some data showing improving economic conditions.

The latest YouGov/The Economist poll showed that a majority of voters—53 percent—disapprove of Trump on the economy, while only 39 percent approve of his approach to the economy. His numbers for inflation were even worse—58 percent said they disapprove, and 35 percent said they approved of his handling of inflation and prices.

It surveyed 1,672 adults from January 30 to February 2, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. It was conducted via web-based interviews.

Democrats Use Affordability to Expand 2026 Senate Map

Democrats are hoping an affordability focus can expand their Senate map amid voter concerns about economic sentiment.

Even though analysts believe the national environment may end up favoring Democrats, the Senate map remains a structural challenge for them. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.

Trump lost Maine in each of his three runs, making it a clear target. While he carried North Carolina in each of his campaigns, he did so by narrow margins; only about 3 percent in 2024. No other states he lost or won by single digits are up for grabs in 2026. Even if Democrats hold their current seats and flip those seats, they will be held to a 49-seat minority.

This means Democrats must flip at least two seats Trump won by double-digits to win a majority, so races in states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are being contested despite their conservative lean.

What People Are Saying

President Donald Trump touted the economy in an interview with NBC News on Sunday when asked if the U.S. is in the “Trump economy”: “Oh, I’d say we’re there now. I’m — I’m very proud of it, 5.6%. You know, we have a GDP of 5.6 despite a shutdown. We had a 42-day shutdown. I call it the Democrat shutdown. And because of that I lost a point and a half. I would’ve been at a 7 GDP, which hasn’t been seen, I don’t know if ever, maybe. Maybe ever.”

Gregory Daco, a chief economist at Ernst & Young, told Bloomberg Business Daily: “When you look at business investment, there is polarization between those that are focused on AI investment and those that are not. There is polarization between large businesses and small businesses that are struggling more in the face of some of these policy headwinds. So it's not necessarily a K-shaped economy as much as it is a polarized economy within which you're still seeing strong averages.”

Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Nevada Democrat, wrote to X on Monday: “Donald Trump and his cronies are claiming that he's ended inflation. The truth is just the opposite. I hear from families in Nevada who are struggling with soaring costs, and they deserve leaders who will work to lower those costs.”

What Happens Next

If economic sentiment remains sour heading into the height of the 2026 campaign, Republicans could face competitive Senate races even in states that traditionally lean red. Enten’s warning underscores that the economy—long considered Trump’s strongest issue—may now be a liability.

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